Checking the Northern Lights forecast was really complex not so long ago.
However, technology has allowed us to accurately predict the Northern Lights, so much so that today it’s possible to plan trips to see the Northern Lights weeks in advance, increasing the chances of a good display of lights.
However, you must know how to read the Northern Lights forecast and be patient. No matter how good you are at predicting the Northern Lights, forecasts can change in minutes!
The Northern Lights forecast is all about physics, formulas, and numbers, but don’t worry. Many Northern Lights trackers make Aurora prediction straightforward to the average person. Now it’s easier than ever to understand it!
I’ve been photographing Northern Lights all over the world for many years, and in this article, I’ll summarize all my knowledge so you can learn how to read the Northern Lights forecast in an easy and digestible way.
- How to predict Northern Lights
- Northern Lights forecast tonight
- Northern Lights forecast in Iceland
- Northern Lights forecast in Alaska
- Northern Lights forecast in Canada
- Northern Lights forecast in Norway
- Northern Lights forecast in Finland
- Solar cycle and Northern Lights: Is 2023 a good year to see the Northern Lights?
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How to predict the Northern Lights
Before discussing how to predict the Northern Lights, I recommend that you take a look at our articles on the best time to see Northern Lights and the best places to see Northern Lights. It won’t be easy to have a favorable Northern Lights forecast if you aren’t in the right place at the right time.
Now, let’s learn to read the Aurora forecast and the Northern Lights maps so you can predict the Northern Lights in real time.
In the Northern Lights forecast, there are three main indicators for tracking the Aurora:
KP Northern Lights forecast
The KP index is the most common way to forecast the Northern Lights, and you can use it both for short-term and long-term Aurora prediction.
This Aurora forecast indicator (known as “planetary K-index”) is simply a scale to measure the geomagnetic activity that is directly related to Northern Lights visibility. Here you can learn a little more about what causes the northern lights.
The KP-index has a range of 0-9 and, generally speaking, has the following implications for the Northern Lights forecast:
- The higher the KP-index, the further south you can see the Northern Lights.
- The higher the KP-index, the more likely you will see a big Northern Lights display at higher latitudes.
For example, with a KP 3, you’re very likely to see the Northern Lights in Iceland, but if you want to see the Northern Lights in England, the data says that you’ll need a KP 5 or higher.
KP is just an indicator, but in most situations:
KP 1 to 3: Auroras are usually quiet and faint. The predominant color is green, and they are most visible in the northern sky at high latitudes.
KP 4 to 6: The Northern Lights are active. You can see how they move across the sky, possibly showing vivid colors like yellow, pink, or purple tones. Aurora coronas are also possible, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in England or the Northern states of the USA.
KP 7 to 9: Aurora strong storms. The Northern Lights are very active. They can cover the entire sky and show rarer colors like red. Aurora coronas are common, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in California, France, and even northern Spain.
It is already considered a solar storm of grade G1 at KP5. KP6 indicates a solar storm of grade G2, KP7 means a solar storm of grade G3, KP8 means a solar storm of grade G4, and KP9 solar storm of grade G5, the maximum ever recorded.
Long-Term Northern Lights forecast – Long-term KP Index
It is difficult to predict the Northern Lights over the long term.
Coronal mass ejections, which cause most of the solar storms and, therefore, stronger Auroras, are forecast 15 days in advance, but their strength and shape can vary once they get closer to Earth.
The best way to forecast the Northern Lights in advance is by using the long-term KP index.
I use the display of SpaceWeatherlive since they also show the moon phase, and it’s very intuitive to use.
Is the KP forecast a good Northern Lights Forecast tracker?
Always take this index with a pinch of salt because it’s not 100% accurate. It’s the best Northern Lights forecast indicator, but sometimes you can see strong displays with low KPs and vice versa.
Additionally, the KP forecast takes time to be updated, and strong geomagnetic activity happens very quickly. Sometimes the strong Northern Lights may have passed, even before they have updated the KP index.
Ovation Auroral Northern Lights prediction
The Ovation Auroral forecast is a model that provides a short-term Northern Lights forecast.
This model displays the Northern Lights forecast map around the Auroral oval zone, so if you’re inside the Northern Lights covered area or around 500 miles (800 km) above or below, you’ll have a chance of seeing the Aurora.
The intensity of the Aurora is shown in different colors from green (faint/normal activity) to yellow (higher activity) to red (very strong activity).
This Aurora forecast is also known as the NOAA Northern Lights forecast since it’s provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Below you can see the NOAA Northern Lights forecast in real-time:
Solar Rotation − Long-Term Northern Lights Forecast
Another thing to consider in long-term Northern Lights forecast is the solar rotation.
The sun rotates on its axis in a 27-day cycle, and if it ‘spits’ a big amount of solar particles towards the earth, this event will likely occur again after 27 days.
For example, on Aug 31st and the Sept 1st last year, there was a KP 5. Twenty-seven days later, on Sept 27th and 28th, the KP was 5. And 27 days later, on Oct 25th and 26th, the KP was again 5.
You can check all this data on the following Aurora and solar activity archive.
Northern lights forecast tonight
The simplest and most straightforward way to know the long-term Aurora forecast and the Northern Lights forecast for tonight is by using an Aurora application.
Most of the Aurora Forecast apps will show you all the things we mentioned before in a user-friendly and digestible manner, like the long term KP, the short term KP, and the Ovation Auroral forecast according to your location.
Some of them also include more technical data, like the solar wind direction and speed and even pictures of the sunspots.
To me, the most interesting feature included in the best Northern Lights forecast apps is the alert and notification system that triggers when the KP is rising in your location.
Best aurora borealis prediction app
There are many great Northern Lights prediction apps on the market, but my favorite, and the one I always use, is “My Aurora forecast”. This free app includes all the basic and advanced features and a cloud forecast according to your location.
Solar activity doesn’t affect everywhere in the same way. Also, some Northern Lights conditions, like the weather, change drastically from one location to another, so it’s important to know the best Northern Lights prediction for viewing Auroras, depending on where you are.
Remember that no matter how big the solar storm is, you’ll see nothing if the sky is covered. In addition to using Aurora Borealis prediction tools, you must check the weather forecast. Specifically, you want to check the cloud coverage, and for this, it’s very useful to use local tools that will show you the locations with clear skies near you where you can see the Aurora.
These are the best Northern Lights forecasts depending on your location:
Northern Lights forecast in Iceland
The best Northern Lights forecast in Iceland is provided by the Icelandic Met office site.
On this site, you’ll see at a glance:
- The Reykjavik Northern Lights forecast and the Aurora prediction for all the other areas in Iceland.
- The Moon phase. This is also interesting since the full moon can make weak Auroras less visible. However, we have also seen the Northern Lights with a full moon.
- The cloud coverage in real-time. This is the most essential tool for chasing the Aurora across the island.
Regarding the long-term Northern Lights forecast in Iceland, you can check Spaceweatherlive.
You can find more information in this article we wrote about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Iceland.
Northern Lights forecast Alaska
In terms of the best Northern Lights forecast in Alaska, the most complete site is the Geophysical institute of Alaska.
On this site you’ll find:
- The Alaska Northern Lights forecast in Fairbanks, Anchorage and all the Alaskan territory.
- The Ovation Auroral prediction.
- The current moon phase.
- The 27-day long-term Aurora forecast for Alaska.
You can also predict the Northern Lights in Fairbanks using this Northern Lights in real-time camera.
Lastly, this satellite cloud forecast for Alaska will help you succeed on your Northern Lights chasing experience in “the last frontier”.
For general Northern Lights forecasting in the USA, such as, for example, the Aurora forecast in Minnesota, Montana and other cities where you can see the Lights during big displays, I suggest checking the Aurora forecast from NOAA for short-term forecast and Spaceweatherlive for long-term forecast.
You can find more information in this article we wrote about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Alaska.
Northern Lights forecast Canada
For the Northern Lights forecast in Canada, you can visit Aurora Watch.
On this website, you’ll find:
- The Short-term Northern Lights forecast in Canada.
- Your % probability of seeing the Aurora in the Edmonton area. This is a good way to find out the Aurora forecast in Banffand the Canadian Rockies.
- The historical data so you can plan your trip for the best time.
Before starting your Northern Lights hunt, you can also use this Cloud forecast in Canada. For further information, here is the post we have written about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Canada.
Northern Lights forecast Norway
The best prediction site to forecast Northern Lights in Norway is the Norwegian Center for Space Weather (NOSWE).
This site is the bible for Northern Lights in Norway, where you’ll find:
- Northern Lights forecast in Tromso, Oslo, Svalbard, and many other places.
- The Ovation Auroral forecast in Norway.
- Real-time Northern Lights cameras in different locations.
To check the cloud coverage forecast in Norway, the best site is YR.no. For more information, check our article on the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Norway.
Northern Lights forecast Finland and Sweden
For a Northern Lights forecast in Europe and other good regions to see the Aurora like Finland or Sweden, you can use Auroras Now. For further information, here is the post we have written about the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Finland and the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Sweden.
To check the cloud forecast in Finland, use the SAA website.
Solar Cycle and Aurora Borealis: Is 2023 a good year to see the Northern Lights?
To finish this article, I just wanted to address one of the most common questions we receive these days: Is 2023 a good year to see the Northern Lights?
The Northern Lights depend entirely on solar activity, which follows an 11 year-cycle.
During this 11-year cycle, the sun has less activity at the beginning and end of the cycle, called solar minimum, and a period of more activity in the middle of the cycle, also known as solar maximum.
During the solar maximum, there is a more significant activity, which increases the possibility of seeing more frequent geomagnetic storms and strong Northern Lights at lower latitudes.
In 2023, we are getting closer to the solar maximum of cycle number 25, so it’s considered a good year to see the Aurora. However, that doesn’t mean that you’ll see big Aurora shows every night; there will be more solar activity on average than in other years and more solar flares causing bigger displays on certain days.
2022 was a great year in terms of solar activity, and we saw great displays during our Iceland Northern Lights Photo Tour and our Orcas & Aurora tour in Norway, with the biggest displays that we have seen in years.
Northern Lights forecast is real science, but it can be summarized by understanding a couple of concepts, like the KP-index and the Aurora prediction maps.
Use the KP as a rough idea for a Northern Lights forecast. Make sure you’re trying to see the Lights when there is a promising Aurora prediction and not just an estimation of what time you’ll see them.
Don’t forget to check the cloud forecast. Even if the sun is melting, you won’t see the Aurora Borealis if the skies are covered.
Finally, my last tip: if you’re planning a Northern Lights trip and don’t want to be bothered by maps and data, download any of the best Northern Lights forecast apps and activate the alarms/notifications to know when solar activity will increase in your location.
Please feel free to leave any questions about the Northern Lights forecast! Happy hunting!
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- PHOTOGRAPHING THE NORTHERN LIGHTS -
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